Weather forecasts have been created and distributed to the public in the U.S. for over 150 years and the means and methods have seemingly improved by light years. Communication of important weather information and forecasts continues to become a work in progress, however. The situation is complicated by the amount of available information and the number of sources the public uses to receive weather information. Many are confused as to where the information that they learned came from. Then there is the topic of myths and legends but I’ll leave that for another discussion.
I have been trying to communicate weather information since I was seven years old while growing up in my hometown of Rome, New York. Over the years, I have communicated weather information in various forms. My over three decades at The Weather Channel gave me my greatest experience with various positions including briefing show producers, external customers and the many years that I spent as an On-Camera Meteorologist. The featured image for this article is me from a long, long time ago
Evolution Of Weather Forecasting
Some of our founding fathers dabbled with the subject of weather. Ben Franklin was the first to conjecture that weather systems move from west to east or southwest to northeast.
George Washington and Thomas Jefferson observed and chronicled weather information and I have used some of that information in past articles dealing with historical weather events.
An official agency wasn’t established until 1870. On February 2, 1870, the United States Congress passed a resolution requiring the Secretary of War “to provide for taking meteorological observations at the military stations in the interior of the continent and at other points in the States and Territories…and for giving notice on the northern (Great) lakes and the seacoast by magnetic telegraph and marine signals, of the approach and force of storms.” The Resolution was signed into law on February 9, 1870, by President Ulysses S. Grant, and the precursor to the Weather Bureau and National Weather Service was born.
Their forecasts were simply worded and only went out for a day. Just after the turn of the century, it became apparent to physicists that weather forecasts could be made by a system of mathematical equations that could project the movement of fluids and gases in the atmosphere.
A “primitive” weather map from the early 1870s. Map Credit- U.S. War Department.
A British scientist, Lewis Richardson, attempted to make a six-hour forecast but his calculations took 6 weeks to finish.
During World War Two, B-29 pilots flying missions over the Pacific came in contact with strong winds aloft, and the jet stream was discovered. This was an extremely important element in weather forecasting After the war, there was finally some progress made with computer technology. A 24-hour forecast could be made in 24 hours. It wasn’t useable but there was a considerable improvement.
By the mid-1950s, computer models, were primitive as they began to generate forecasts. The model most used was called the barotropic. It has some severe limitations, however.
In 1960, the TOROS 1 weather satellite was launched and a new day for weather forecasting dawned. We’ve come a long way from a grainy photo of the Earth to the complex GOES satellites where we can see multi-channel visible, infrared, and water vapor photos. In addition a complete profile of the atmosphere, including lightning data. It can also collect solar data.
Left- The first photo of the Earth taken by the TIROS 1 satellite in April 1960. Right- GOES satellite photo of a weakening tropical cyclone along the Australian Coast in April 2019.
By the early 1970s, a new model (LFM) was experimental and it became operational. This model had limitations, compared to what we have today, but it was a giant leap forward. Forecasts for two to three days became more reliable.
In the 1980s computer models continued to evolve and they could forecast farther ahead. I remember using the (84-hour) “Spectral” model. Three-day forecasts were becoming more accurate and you could at least get an idea of four to five-day forecasts in many situations.
Today, there is a myriad of models that can be used for forecasting. We must remember that models are only projections based on atmospheric data that is fed into them. These include mathematical equations and even current conditions and radar. Some models can project out for weeks and even months at a time. Accuracy does fall off significantly with time, however.
Some models are long-term, short-term, and medium-range. Some can be used for severe weather situations and some for hurricanes.
Below is an example of a model menu from the College of DuPage website.
The total amount of information that can be communicated to the public is eye-popping, over the years I have been a meteorologist. The various graphics and broadcast/digital media that can be used are also incredible.
An image from inside the NWS office in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Image Credit-YouTube,
The accuracy of extended forecasts has also increased dramatically. When I started in this business, three-day forecasts were inconsistent, and beyond that, they were a long shot at best. Now, they are much more reliable. One to two-day forecasts are very accurate. Hurricane track forecasts are so much better than they were in the past. Even mesoscale (small-scale) forecasts like thunderstorms have improved to a great degree over the years.
GFS (American) computer model surface and precipitation forecast for 18Z March 28, 2024. Map Credit- NOAA
Impressive advances have also been made in radar technology since the Doppler network was launched by NOAA in the 1990s. Incredible 3-D analysis of thunderstorms is an example, along with tornado and hail detection.
A Nexad 2 radar showing A 3-D image of a thunderstorm over the southeastern U.S. – NOAA
Communication Of Weather Information
There is so much information available and so many ways to communicate it. The demand for specific weather information is ever-increasing. The major question is how much the public understands what information is being communicated.
There are so many situations. Winter weather, severe weather, and tropical weather are SO different and they all pose different challenges to the meteorologist. Although I have witnessed the evolution and accuracy of forecasts (especially extended forecasts) it doesn’t seem to translate to the public to that degree.
There are many points that I could make regarding this subject, but I can’t accomplish that in one article. Perhaps I can continue to revisit this subject. I’ll start with misconceptions.
I have been in this business for many decades and I assure you, that meteorologists attempt to make the best possible forecast with the information they have, coupled with their experience. Some “wannabes” posting model forecasts indicating a storm 10 days in advance doesn’t help the situation!
Meteorologists are products of vigorous programs of colleges and universities. They have to take courses not only in meteorology but also in advanced math and physics. Many meteorologists have advanced degrees.
For those who are employed by TV stations or other media, I can speak to that from personal experience. Although TV producers look for what can excite the viewers, meteorologists are science-based, Often the meteorologist will work with the producer to craft headlines that draw attention but aren’t “over the top”.
A Myriad Of Websites And Apps
There are plenty of websites that you can go to on the Internet to obtain weather information. The National Weather Service and other government agencies are a good example. There are local TV stations and national TV networks. There are also many private weather services. There is no shortage of websites for “weather”. Some sites are run by weather enthusiasts rather than meteorologists or high school and college students.
An NWS Forecast Office website from Boston, Massachusetts with the latest advisories and warnings.
Each of these entities has its unique way of communicating weather information, with different maps, and they use different terminology. All of this can be quite confusing to the consumer. You might have noticed that weather forecasts are all over social media, such as Facebook and Twitter (X). Some model forecasts for two weeks in advance that show a major storm are posted by those seeking attention. Once that happens the “word” of the forecast event spreads like wildfire (with exaggerations)!
If we could turn the clock back 30 years, there would be far fewer places to get your forecast. Most of the time the information came from local TV, radio, and newspapers. The Weather Channel was available. As for now, I suggest that you find a reputable source and get to know how they convey weather information.
Most iPhone users have a weather app to use for weather forecasts at their convenience. Weather apps are useful tools that provide up-to-date information about current weather and weather forecasts in your area.
You should be careful when using the apps, however. Most people think that the forecasts on the apps are created by a meteorologist. These forecasts are computer-generated with input from a blend of computer models and an injection of current radar and surface conditions. Most larger private weather companies have a meteorologist to quality control the computer-generated forecasts.
However, if a meteorologist sees that an area has a 20 percent chance of precipitation and that person thinks it should be 30 percent, they might leave that forecast alone since they are under time constraints with bigger fish to fry.
You should take the app forecasts more generally than specifically. In long-range outlooks daily temperature forecasts over several days are usually good but precipitation is a bit less so. Once again, when it comes to precipitation, take the forecast generally and keep coming back for updates.
An example of an app that you can get on your iPhone – Andriod Central
Types Of Weather
Different types of weather present their own set of challenges for both the forecast side and the communication side.
Severe
I’ll go to severe weather first because it can be complicated. Severe weather is on a mesoscale level rather than on a grander scale like winter weather and tropical weather. Trying to forecast where particular thunderstorms will be or where a tornado will form is almost impossible until radar indicates where a tornado is beginning to form.
Forecasters can hone in on areas with computer models and upper-level forecasts for certain periods, They also look at atmospheric parameters where severe weather can develop.
The only way to communicate this is to show a percentage chance of severe weather over a particular area and a time frame for the event. The chance for particular forms of severe weather like large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
I’ll give you an example in northern Texas. The forecast was for that area, including Dallas-Ft-Worth, for severe thunderstorms with large hail, and damaging winds. My forecast would have been the same, by the way.
In this case, the hail would come from individual thunderstorm cells that would erupt. These would only cover a small area, so many residents wouldn’t see hail at all. The damaging winds would come later, from a line of thunderstorms. Only some thunderstorms in a line like that would be severe. So, only a small part of the area would see severe weather.
From social media posts back then, many thought that hail and damaging winds would cover most of the area. Look at the storm reports below showing no severe storms in the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex but plenty of them in the surrounding area. Many residents of the Dallas-Ft-Worth area probably exclaimed “They” said it was going to be bad and it wasn’t as bad as they said it would be. The information and forecast were communicated. On this “meso” scale, we just can’t pinpoint where the severe thunderstorms will be.
“Severe” storm reports from northern Texas on April 18, 2019. Green dots denote hail and blue is damaging winds. Notice that much of the DFW area was spared (circle).
The Storm Prediction Center forecasts show areas that have a threat of severe thunderstorms and how high the threat is, by categories based on the probability that a severe weather event will occur within 25 miles of a given location. The threat includes marginal, sight, enhanced, moderate, and high risk.
NWS/NOAA Day 1 Convective Outlook for March 28, 2024
This outlook was modified in recent years but I wonder how the general public understands this product. I will leave that for another day, however.
Tropical
I could write forever about this but I’ll just let you know that hurricane models have improved so much over the years and the track forecasts, indicated by a cone of uncertainty, are quite remarkable in recent times, compared to many years ago.
Intensity forecasts are improving significantly but they still have a way to go. The National Hurricane Center will trend the intensity in their forecasts (usually in small increments).
As we have seen, there are times when hurricanes can intensify very rapidly in a short period of time. NHC impact products have improved markedly.
There is a media frenzy over tropical weather systems, however. There can be lots of conjecture across various media platforms. Many people are caught up in the category of a hurricane. That only gives us wind speed. There are so many other impacts such as total rainfall that can produce catastrophic flooding or high storm surges that can cause excessive damage. Loss of life in hurricanes and tropical storms is much greater from water than wind.
If a hurricane could affect your area, it’s good to know what type of impact it could inflict.
It’s incumbent on meteorologists to convey this information. We now see weather graphics that indicate forecasts for rain/flooding and storm surges, in addition to wind.
For example in 2018, Hurricane Florence wasn’t that intense but flooding was catastrophic in North Carolina, whereas Hurricane Michael was extremely intense and it produced catastrophic wind and storm surge damage in the Gulf Coast area.
If you hear that the maximum sustained winds in a hurricane are 110 miles per hour, that doesn’t mean that every place the hurricane strikes will have that much wind. For example, if a hurricane covers a large area and only one point within it has sustained winds (1 minute) of 110 miles per hour then it’s listed at 110 miles per hour. So, most areas will NOT see winds of that intensity. Winds in a hurricane also drop off pretty rapidly away from the center.
Winter Storms
These can be tricky to forecast and to communicate. Some snow forecasts are easier than others especially if the temperature is solidly cold. When temperatures flirt with 32 degrees, especially where the snow forms in the clouds, just a slight temperature difference could mean something other than snow and it will ruin the forecast.
There are also large-scale winter storms and localized events (such as the “lake effect”). These can be tricky to explain and I sometimes wonder how much is understood.
Once again, I have never seen a meteorologist “hype” a snow event by inflating the forecast. They make the best forecast based on the information they have to work with. I have seen what I would call “hype” by national news outlets or media websites that are NOT weather-based.
Another thing that I notice is that sometimes a large amount of snow is forecast for an area four or five days ahead of time. Over time the forecast sometimes changes, to various degrees, but the original forecast is spread around and the updates don’t seem to resonate.
Most NWS offices now post “storyboards” on their website when an impactful weather system will affect their area. That is a very good idea! Here is an example from the NWS Office in Spokane, Washington from March 27, 2024.
This format adds CONTEXT to general weather forecasts. More and more local TV meteorologists also feature this format when significant weather is in the forecast. As I watch various TV meteorologists do their weather segments, I have noticed that they are incorporating much more context into their presentations, and that goes hand in hand with the graphics and storyboards.
Here is an example of this format displayed in graphic and text form from Bill Kardas, Chief Meteorologist for WKTV in Utica, New York. Bill displayed this graphic on TV, Facebook and Twitter (X) on March 22, 2024, ahead of a winter storm. It showed specific locations and the type of weather that could be expected. The forecast turned out quite well, by the way.
Social media like Facebook and Twitter (X) are being used more often to convey weather information. I tend to use both to “get the word out”. You can get valuable (sometimes life-saving) information from these sources, especially Twitter (X) because it tends to be in real (or recent) time.
This is especially helpful in severe weather events when tornadoes are forecast. I hope this kind of information will continue to be allowed on that site! Once again, be careful that the source of your information that you are receiving is from a reputable one!
Here is an example from a post on Twitter (X) that could have been very helpful. Dr. Craig Cee Cee’s post deals with severe thunderstorms, with tornadoes, in Mississippi on March 25, 2024. Dr. Cee Cee has proven to be an extremely valuable source of information during severe weather events, especially in the South!
How Can Communication Be Improved?
So, as you can see, we in the weather communication business are faced with a dilemma. How can we better communicate weather information? How can we make the general public realize that various weather situations can differ? How can we better educate the public about various weather events and what type of forecasts can be reasonably communicated? There is no cookie-cutter method to cover it all.
There seems to be some kind of “disconnect”. Maybe it’s because we are living in cynical times. Perhaps some feel that forecasts are exaggerated and they have been intertwined with politics. Maybe the public is not trusting of what information is conveyed to them. Maybe they just don’t understand the science in general. Or maybe they have been flooded with too much information (some from professional meteorologists and some from those who are not meteorologists).
Is the division about climate change spilling over to weather? Are there too many weather sources with too much varying information, If the information being conveyed is not complete or not being properly understood? Maybe I’m just overreacting a bit.
ANY input regarding this topic would be greatly appreciated! This is only my perspective, I have only covered the tip of the iceberg and suggestions, insights, or observations would be greatly appreciated.
