This afternoon a surface cold front moved through the region with a noticeable wind shift from the southwest to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. This frontal passage did not produce an abrupt drop in temperatures, but the process to get colder air into the region has begun. Temperatures have peaked in the lower 50s to lower 60s this afternoon and have started to fall steadily since then with temperatures already in the upper 30s in the Catskills. Temperatures will continue to fall through this evening, reaching the upper 20s to mid-30s northwest of I-95, upper 30s to lower 40s along I-95, and lower to mid-40s to the south of I-95.
Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure will develop off the Virginia coast between 1 AM to 4 AM tomorrow morning and start to push precipitation into the region, initially falling as a mix of snow and rain before changing over to all snow. By 4 AM, the surface temperatures around and southeast of the I-95 Corridor will range from the lower to mid-30s, marginally supportive for snow accumulation.
The area of snowfall will continue through the morning hours, steadily dropping to the southeast. The snow shield will clear the coast from northwest to southeast from 10 AM to 3 PM. Flurries will linger into 4 PM over southeastern coastal New Jersey and extreme eastern Long Island.
Given the marginal temperatures, most snow accumulation will be found on cold surfaces like car tops, vegetation, and metal surfaces. Treated roadways and sidewalks will have limited snowfall accumulation or will remain wet. The untreated surface will at least get a dusting on snow. After this snowfall, temperatures won’t rise above freezing until Wednesday afternoon when temperatures are expected in the 40s and 50s, so any leftover snow or ice will be hanging around to start next week.
