More thunderstorms are developing in the western Caribbean, but no closed low-level circulation has developed, yet. Given the developments this morning, a disorganized low-pressure system is starting to form, but there are several centers that could become the dominant feature. Atmospheric conditions are favorable for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to occur in the next 24 to 66 hours between the coastal waters of Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula. The structure and potential inhibiting factors for this tropical low-pressure system remain unknown until a low-pressure system has formed, the intensification of the storm remains a wild card from a weak tropical storm to a major hurricane depending on a variety of factors from low and mid-level dry air, to the interaction of landmasses like the Yucatan Peninsula, to the location of very warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. However, the synoptic model guidance is in strong agreement with the development of an upper-level low-pressure system in the Mississippi River Valley, which would force any tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea to lift northward towards the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of this week.
