This evening, PTC9 continues to gradually organize as several low-level and mid-level circulations begin to organize. Still, strong shear and dry air from an upper-level low-pressure system over the northern Yucatan Peninsula continues to imped the development of PTC9 from becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm. However, the vertical wind shear is expected to subside. Most of the convection with PTC9 can be found on the eastern side of the circulation. PTC9 is expected to become better organized and could become a hurricane in the next 48 hours. Given the very warm waters in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, there is potential that PTC9 could intensify rapidly. However, if the storm remains disorganized, that potential will decrease.
The synoptic model guidance is in strong agreement with the development of an upper-level low-pressure system in the Mississippi River Valley, which would force any tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea to lift northward towards the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of this week.
