The model guidance for the MJO through the middle of June continues to advertise a moderate phase 7 and phase 8, which when coupled with La Nina provides an active weather pattern for the Eastern United States and Tropical Atlantic.
The MJO in these phases under La Nina supports a sustained trough in the Gulf of Alaska and a sustained ridge over the western Atlantic that at times builds into the Gulf of Mexico. This 500 MB orientation supports a favorable pattern for waves of cold fronts over the Northern Plains through the Mid Atlantic along with some support for back door cold fronts from New England into the Mid Atlantic. The current enhancement of tropical forcing would support the continuation of an active weather pattern for these locations with temperatures averaging near normal for this period, but continue to expect wild swings from well above to well below temperature anomalies in this pattern.
Meanwhile, the tropical Atlantic will be under an environment of favorable conditions with low vertical wind shear and support for a tropical gyre to linger over the western Caribbean. These conditions are already supportive for the season’s first tropical depression in the next 66 hours and likely will feature the potential for a few more tropical low-pressure systems to develop in the western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, or western Atlantic over the next 10 to 15 days.
