Snow will begin to develop on Sunday afternoon with light snow showers forming over southern New Jersey. The snow showers will slowly spread north into the Philadelphia metropolitan areas into the New York City metropolitan areas Sunday evening towards midnight Monday. The snowfall will be light at this time.
The snowfall will become widespread and steady throughout the region on Monday morning throughout much of the region. Snow will mix with sleet and rain in zones 5 and 6 in this time period while sleet will be a threat in zones 3 and 4. Snowfall intensity will be light to moderate and winds will begin to increase from the northeast at 5 to 15 mph to 10 to 20 mph as the new coastal low-pressure system organizes.
On Monday afternoon through Monday evening, the new coastal low-pressure system will take over as the primary low-pressure system, which will start to pull cold air towards the coast. The snow will intensify in all zones in this time period. The wintry mix in zone 5 over southern New Jersey and zone 6.
The low-pressure system will intensify and slowly track through the coastal waters Monday night through Tuesday morning. Due to the intense nature of the snow bands in zones 3 and 4, the precipitation will start to subside and break up in zones 1 and 2. In this time period, winds will intensify along the coast at 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph at times. Visibility will fall to near zero at times. In this time period, the snow shield will feature mesoscale banding and the potential for very intense snowfall where snowfall rates could reach 1″ to 3″ per hour.
The low-pressure system will exit on Tuesday afternoon with lingering snow showers, especially along the coast.
The snowfall forecast is still slightly volatile for zones 3 and 4 which could shift north or south slightly over the next 48 hours ahead of this storm. There is high confidence in the forecast for all other zones.
This storm is likely to produce dangerous travel conditions on Monday morning through Tuesday morning with snow-covered and icy roadways along with visibility below a mile at times. This storm has the potential to produce moderate to major coastal flooding along the New Jersey coast and Long Island. Wind damage and power outages are a threat with this storm as well.