Last year’s hurricane season ended up to be very active and featured one of the most powerful hurricanes on record when Hurricane Dorian decimated the Bahamas late in the Summer. Will this year’s Atlantic Hurricane Season feature similar results?
Below is the expected forecast for this year from June 1st to November 30th:
AVERAGE: 11.3 Named/6.2 Hurricanes/2.3 Major Hurricanes
FORECAST: 16 Named/10 Hurricanes/5 Major Hurricanes
As you can see, an above-normal season is expected this year considering the current atmospheric conditions and sea surface temperatures. I am rather concerned about the locations in the Gulf of Mexico, the western Caribbean, and the Bahamas as these locations have favorable conditions to support the rapid intensification of tropical low-pressure systems, which is why I am rather aggressive with the number of major hurricanes this year.
A detailed analysis of the potential influences on the hurricane season can be read here in the Premium Section. Overall, one of the most important factors for this year will be the evolution and influence of a new La Nina. As of this writing, the forecast is based on the idea of ENSO remaining neutral for much of the season, however, if La Nina is established by August then the potential for the number of storms to exceed the forecast increases significantly.