After what has been a rather cool Spring (I mean, it’s freaking snowing in the Poconos tonight!), I am sure many are hoping for a return to a more normal weather pattern for this Summer. As many of you know, the Summer months are June, July, and August.
Overall, the Summer of 2020 will start off cool with below normal temperature anomalies and above-normal precipitation for much of June. July will feature a transition to a warmer and drier weather pattern with an increased potential for temperatures to support brief heatwave conditions. August is expected to feature above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation. Here is the break down I am expecting:
JUNE: -1.0° to -0.5°/-0.25″ to +0.25″
JULY: -0.5° to +0.5°/0.00″ to +0.50″
AUG: +0.5° to +1.0°/-0.25″ to +0.25″
In the Premium Forecast I break down the various lifting parameters by each month and what I think will drive the weather pattern. Overall, the key to the forecast revolves around tropical forcing. If La Nina develops faster than currently expected, the weather pattern for July and August will be hotter than shown in this current discussion. As such, the basis of this forecast is basically that La Nina will be slow to develop this Summer, thus influences will be slow to show up in the 500 MB pattern.