The latest data for the Thanksgiving travel period for the Northeast looks to feature seasonable temperatures and unsettled conditions, especially towards the Great Lakes. The upper-level pattern will feature a fading but still influential negative NAO pattern with an upper-level low-pressure system lifting towards Greenland. The current data supports a storm track through the eastern Great Lakes that will support the threat of showers throughout the Mid-Atlantic coast and more steady rainfall over the eastern Great Lakes and New England. The rain threat will change over to snow as colder air returns for the eastern Great Lakes and northern New England. The cold front will pass through the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastline on Thursday morning with scattered showers and a turn to chilly, breezy conditions in the afternoon.
I do expect lake effect precipitation, likely snow, to be an issue Wednesday and after Thanksgiving off Lake Erie and Ontario, which may complicate travel plans for the region.
