Milton has achieved near record-breaking intensity with pressure now falling below 900 MB, which has not been observed in decades, only Wilma in 2005 at 882 MB has been lower. Milton is a category five hurricane and is likely to remain at this intensity through the next 24 hours at least. When storms get this intense, an eyewall replacement cycle will produce some weakening, but that won’t mean the impacts on the Florida coast won’t be any less devastating. The damage has already been done, with a massive storm surge now a guaranteed reality for the Tampa Bay area.
Milton is in an environment with perfect potential for steady, rapid intensification through the next two days. Milton is developing over very warm waters under an upper-level ridge centered right over the Gulf of Mexico. The fact that the Subtropical jet stream features a trough over Texas and a strong jet streak from the central Gulf Coast to the coastal waters of the Carolinas will produce an environment where the northern upper-level outflow circulation will become enhanced. This factor will support an environment where Milton can undergo rapid intensification while rapidly moving toward the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday night. As a result, there is potential for Milton to make landfall on the Florida Peninsula as an intensifying major category three, major category four, or major category five hurricane. The only limiting factor may be an eyewall replacement cycle and some increase in vertical wind shear. Such a development would produce a powerful storm surge for the Florida coastline and significant damage around areas like Tampa Bay, Florida.
Milton would be caught in the trough in the Subtropical jet stream and then rapidly move into the western Atlantic with the potential to threaten Bermuda by next weekend as either a subtropical or extratropical storm.