Meteorology Not Modelology™

Milton Explosively Intensifying This Morning

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London, GB
3:12 pm, Feb 9, 2025
weather icon 42°C | °F
L: 41° H: 43°
broken clouds
Humidity 87 %
Pressure 1029 hPa
Wind 10 mph ENE
Wind Gust Wind Gust: 0 mph
Precipitation Precipitation: 0 inch
Dew Point Dew Point: 0°
Clouds Clouds: 75%
Rain Chance Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Snow: 0
Visibility Visibility: 6 mi
Air Quality Air Quality:
Sunrise Sunrise: 7:25 am
Sunset Sunset: 5:04 pm

Milton has rapidly intensified into a category three hurricane as of the 7 AM update with winds of 120 mph.  This morning, Milton has a solid central dense overcast with a tight, small eye.  The cloud tops are reaching -80°C, which signals very powerful lifting.  The outflow circulation around the storm is very well-developed as well.  Milton will continue to be in a favorable environment for further intensification through this evening.  An eyewall replacement cycle is the only factor that may slow intensification.

Milton is in an environment with perfect potential for steady, rapid intensification through the next three days.  Milton is developing over very warm waters under an upper-level ridge centered right over the Gulf of Mexico.  The fact that the Subtropical jet stream features a trough over Texas and a strong jet streak from the central Gulf Coast to the coastal waters of the Carolinas will produce an environment where the northern upper-level outflow circulation will become enhanced.  This factor will support an environment where Milton can undergo rapid intensification while rapidly moving toward the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday night.  As a result, there is potential for Milton to make landfall on the Florida Peninsula as an intensifying major category three, major category four, or major category five hurricane.  The only limiting factor may be an eyewall replacement cycle.  Such a development would produce a powerful storm surge for the Florida coastline and significant damage around areas like Tampa Bay, Florida.

Milton would be caught in the trough in the Subtropical jet stream and then rapidly move into the western Atlantic with the potential to threaten Bermuda by next weekend as either a subtropical or extratropical storm.

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