Milton has formed a well-organized central-dense overcast with deep convection and very cold cloud tops this evening. These signals suggest strong lifting is occurring and only a matter of time until an eye becomes visible. The outflow on all sides of the storm has matured with the strongest outflow on the northern side of the storm, which is being enhanced by the strong jet streak in the subtropical jet stream along the Gulf Coast. Milton is a small but intense storm right now but is expected to continue to grow in size. The latest observations suggest that Milton will continue to intensify through tonight and into tomorrow morning, likely reaching category two strength.
Milton is in an environment with perfect potential for steady, rapid intensification through the next four days. Milton is developing over very warm waters under an upper-level ridge that is centered right over the Gulf of Mexico. The fact that the Subtropical jet stream features a trough over Texas and a strong jet streak from the central Gulf Coast to the coastal waters of the Carolinas will produce an environment where the northern upper-level outflow circulation will become enhanced. This factor will support an environment where Milton can undergo rapid intensification while rapidly moving toward the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday night. As a result, there is potential for Milton to make landfall on the Florida Peninsula as an intensifying major category three or major category four hurricane. The only limiting factor may be an eyewall replacement cycle. Such a development would produce a powerful storm surge for the Florida coastline and significant damage around areas like Tampa Bay, Florida.
Milton would be caught in the trough in the Subtropical jet stream and then rapidly move into the western Atlantic with the potential to threaten Bermuda by next weekend as either a subtropical or extratropical storm.
