An area of low pressure in the Tennessee River Valley intensified the night of January 22nd through the morning of January 23rd, 2023 while tracking towards the coastal waters of the northern Mid-Atlantic. This low-pressure system intensified due to interaction between a shortwave in the Polar jet stream over the Great Lakes and a shortwave in the Subtropical jet stream along the Mid-Atlantic coast. The Polar trough was in a positive orientation which slowed the development of the 850 MB low-pressure system and supported warm air transport ahead of the storm development. As a result, most of the precipitation was in the form of rain for most of the region. However, as the low-pressure system intensified over the New Jersey coastal waters, temperatures from 850 MB to the surface cooled to marginally support the development of sleet and snow for locations north and northwest of the I-95 corridor. The heaviest snowfall developed in the Poconos and Catskills where the cold air was deeper.
Overall the forecast achieved 95% accuracy with the greatest error found in northeastern Pennsylvania where some locations were slow to transition and accumulate where there were lower elevations. This snowfall was clearly an elevation-dependent event.
