The degree of structural change of Nicole over the past 24 hours has been impressive with the storm taking on full tropical characteristics around the center of the storm. The warm-core structure of Nicole extends up to around 700 MB before a more extratropical structure is evident at 500 MB on up. Still, the ability for Nicole to wrap deep convection around the low-level center of circulation has supported the development of winds of up to 65 mph on the northern side of the circulation.
Nicole will continue to track to the west and is expected to make landfall on the Florida coast by early Thursday morning. While Nicole will be moving in a marginally supportive atmospheric environment due to increasing vertical wind shear, the sea surface temperatures of 27 to 28 degrees Celsius will support the potential for Nicole to reach hurricane strength. Nicole is likely to range around 75 to 85 mph sustained winds when the storm makes landfall. The impacts in Florida will include intense rainfall, wind gusts up to 100 mph, and a storm surge of around 1 to 3 feet.
Nicole is expected to turn northward on Thursday afternoon over the Florida peninsula and become drawn into a deep trough over the Eastern United States. The associated cold front will support an expansion of the precipitation shield from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic by Friday afternoon with significant rainfall a threat for the northern Mid-Atlantic by Friday evening.
