We now have a Subtropical Storm and a lingering tropical disturbance this evening that we continue to monitor.
The first disturbance is 700 miles to the east of Bermuda with convection attempting to form around a low-level center of circulation. The disturbance is racing to the northeast towards colder waters and likely won’t develop into a subtropical depression or storm. The NHC this evening has this disturbance at a 40% chance of development, but I think that’s generous.
Meanwhile, Subtropical Storm Nicole formed late last night and continues to move toward the Bahamas at around 9 to 11 mph. Nicole was actually a shortwave in the Subtropical jet stream over the Tennessee River Valley at the start of last week. Nicole’s structure has not changed much in the past 24 hours with plenty of dry air rotating into the core of the low-pressure system. A cut-off upper-level low-pressure system is clearly associated with this storm and the wind field remains expansive. Given the limited development of deep convection around the low-level center of circulation, Nicole is likely to remain a subtropical storm with little in the way of intensification through the next 24 hours. However, model guidance does support a more favorable environment for Nicole to take on pure tropical characteristics by Wednesday afternoon and could intensify steadily into a hurricane before making landfall on Florida’s coast on Thursday morning. Intensification would be possible due to a reduction of shear, a reduction of dry air, and the warm waters around the Bahamas.
Nicole is expected to turn northward on Thursday over the Florida peninsula and become drawn into a deep trough over the Eastern United States. The associated cold front will support an expansion of the precipitation shield from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic by Friday afternoon with significant rainfall a threat for the northern Mid-Atlantic by Friday evening.
