A broad area of low pressure is attempting to organize over the central Caribbean Sea, and is actively producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although there is plenty of warm water ahead of this system, dry air intrusion and unfavorable shear will make development much more challenging for this system.
The NHC however is suggesting that the disturbance will be moving into environmentally conducive conditions and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next few days as the system moves north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Locally heavy rainfall in the Caribbean Islands is possible regardless of development. However, at this time, there is no threat to the United States.
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