The end is in sight for the hottest portion of the Summer over the next 15 days as the 500 MB pattern shifts towards a greater influence from an EPO state that will waver more towards a negative state.
Initially, through the next seven days, the influence of the Bermuda high at 500 MB to the surface will continue to support the transport of 850 MB temperatures over 19°C into the region. However, unlike last week, the highest temperatures at 850 MB and the surface will be focused towards the southern Mid-Atlantic with a short burst of intense heat on Thursday and Friday ahead of a stronger cold front. This period will feature above-normal temperatures and the potential for a few record highs on Thursday and possibly Friday, depending on the timing of the cold front.
Starting this weekend, there will be stronger support for a deeper 500 MB trough over the Eastern United States and the influence of air masses from central Canada. As a result, 850 MB temperatures will range from 15°C to 18°C this weekend through next week, supporting surface temperature ranges near normal for the middle of August.
Regarding precipitation for the next 15 days, we continue to be at the mercy of convective precipitation with an all-or-nothing setup this week into next week. There is more support in the Ensemble guidance for a shift to more near-normal precipitation, but that shift has been advertised for weeks and continues to fail. I expect August to start with below-normal departures for most of the region. Still, a few spots with training thunderstorm episodes will have the opportunity to start above normal.
The wild card in the forecast remains the potential for tropical development. Still, this morning the guidance doesn’t suggest much activity will develop over the next 15 days. However, as much guidance suggests, that forecast can change quickly if the Sahara dust influence collapses.
