No Videos for August 29, 2016

Good morning.

My apologies but I am unable to do the videos this morning due to a touch head cold that has taken my voice.  Well, more like altered it to a sniffling Darth Vader combination.  Hopefully, I’ll be ready to roll tomorrow morning.  Pass the Green Tea!!

Video Coming To MY Weather Concierge!

Screen Shot 2015-03-07 at 3.33.43 PMI am happy to announce that starting on Monday, Premium Video Discussions are coming to My Weather Concierge!

With My Weather Concierge, you get local weather analysis via the Premium Severe Threat Analysis every day!  Plus when storms strike, you can get one on one consultation right on your smart phone as you are on the go!  **Small Fee applies**

Get My Weather Concierge on your smart phone today and stay ahead of the storm!!

 

Certified Snowfall Analysis Coming This Winter!

When winter weather strikes, you need a provider that will guide you and your business before, during, and after the storm.

NY NJ PA Weather is proud to announce coming this winter, certified snowfall analysis available 24 hours after a winter storm is finished.  The analysis will be completed via a combination of radar estimates, official National Weather Service totals, and official NWS certified spotters.  I should note that while social media snow estimates are useful, they will not be added into this analysis for legal purposes.

This service will be added to all PREMIUM BUSINESS accounts at the end of winter storms for their specific operational areas.

A general overview will also be provided to all PREMIUM MEMBERS after a winter storm is over.

Snow and ice totals will be kept separate.  Snow and sleet will be kept separate when possible.

Non-premium members who are interested in location specific snowfall totals can purchase a copy this winter for $50 a request!

NY NJ PA Weather will continue to grow and look for new ways to help the public get through these winter storms!

NY NJ PA Weather Becomes Verified On Twitter

After nine years of service to the community on twitter, NY NJ PA Weather has become a verified weather account on the social media service.

A true measure of importance to the community, the fact that NY NJ PA Weather has the backing of a major social media service like Twitter shows how important this start up in the weather industry truly is.

Be sure to follow @NYNJPAWeather on twitter for the latest in severe weather developments!

 

Weather Forecasting with no Electricity

What is the best weather model?  Is it the GFS?  Is it the EURO?  Is it Naomi Campbell?  No, the best weather model can be the “look out the window” model.  Observing nature can be an incredibly useful of forecasting the weather.  The following weather sayings are not always accurate, but they are accurate enough to be useful.

“Halo around the sun or moon, rain or snow is coming soon.”  Using optics to bend light, cirrostratus clouds cause a halo to form around the sun or moon.  These clouds are often followed by stratiform rain within 48 hours.

“Rainbow to windward, foul fall the day. Rainbow to leeward, rain run away.”  In the mid-latitudes, the prevailing wind is from the west.  If you see a rainbow in the same direction that the prevailing wind is coming from, rain is coming towards you, and it usually rains within the hour.  If you see a rainbow in the direction the prevailing wind is going to, the rain has passed you, and the rain is over.

“Short notice soon to pass. Long notice, long to last.”  Rain or snow systems that move in quickly like squalls or thunderstorms also tend to move out quickly.  Systems that move in slowly like hurricanes or noreasters tend to move out slowly.

“Big snowflakes, little snowfall.  Little snowflakes, big snowfall.”  Snowflakes become big when they clump together.  They usually clump together because of some melting layer where the temperature is above freezing.  If the above freezing layer is at the surface, the snow will melt on contact.  If the layer is aloft, the snow will chngeover to sleet.  When snowflakes are small, temperatures are usually below freezing everywhere in the column.

Short term numerical weather prediction is incredibly helpful.  However, it can also be coupled with ground observations to provide a more complete picture of our natural world.  The ability to forecast when rain has ended by the rainbow is important because it tells people that they can resume their outdoor activities.  We all can forecast the clouds without using the Cloud.

 

 

Frécho: The Utility Company’s Worst Nightmare

I have always been fascinated by combining two great things.  Combining a duck and a beaver gets us a platypus (not really).  Combining hot dogs and pizza got us Pizza Hut’s Hot Dog Bites Pizza (may it rest in peace).  Combining gummy bears and cookies gives us something that doesn’t exist.

My two most favorite meteorological phenomena are freezing rain and derechos.  I have loved freezing rain since December 4, 2005.  It was unusual to see liquid rain falling from the sky and to see ice on the ground.  Freezing rain turns the ground into a hockey rink and the trees into shimmering ice sculptures.  Ever since the “derecho” hit Philly on July 18, 2006 and knocked out power to 500,000 people, I have loved derechos.  The beautiful shelf clouds, the raw power of the intense rain line, and the thunder and lightning make derechos a sight to behold.

One day, I got to thinking, “Wouldn’t it be great if we combined these things together?”  Recently, I learned that freezing rain and derechos can coexist.  I thought that the idea of a mesoscale area of heavy freezing rain and thunder would be really awesome.  One of the most interesting storms I found was one on March 8-10, 2002 in the Central Plains.  Since I did not pay as much attention to the weather as I do now, I do not personally remember this storm, but I can analyze it in retrospect.

If you look at it on radar, it looks like a line of severe summer thunderstorms.  But it contains snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t have hail; that would have been perfect.  And it was not technically a derecho.  However, this storm has enough punch to be called a frécho (freezing rain derecho), which sounds like something you would eat, but it isn’t.  This storm brought extreme temperature contrasts across space and time.  Although the winter precipitation disappeared as it moved east, the system help together and affected Philadelphia with some early morning thunderstorms on March 10.

Because it is the most organized squall line that contains freezing rain that I could find, this is my favorite storm of all time.  I am still looking for the perfect frécho, a bona fide derecho with all five precipitation types. Who knows? Maybe we will see one next year!

KOFF 090355Z 36014G23KT 1 1/2SM TSFZRASNPL (thunder storm with freezing rain, snow, and ice pellets) BKN003 OVC005CB M01/M01 A2967 RMK TS OHD MOV NE FRQ LTGICCCCACG WND DATA ESTMD SLP059

Fort McMurray Fire: No It Is Not Climate Change

Jason Franson / AP

Jason Franson / AP

There is a horrible disaster going on right now in Alberta, Canada where a powerful forest fire is raging, threatening to destroy whole towns including forest.  This fire, according to experts was likely caused by man made activities given the location of where the fire started and a lack of lightning strikes.

Naturally, on cue, several journalist and some more, shall we say aggressively supportive me Anthropogenic Global Warming theory meteorologist immediately claim this fire was due to climate change before even one flame could be contained.  You know what they say, never miss an opportunity to exploit a disaster.

So what caused this fire?  Well, we know experts believe that this fire was caused by a man made activity.  Perhaps someone was camping and did not put out the fire correctly.  Perhaps even a simple flick of a cigar could have caused this disaster.  However, there was a cause from the weather.

THE PRECURSOR:

Screen Shot 2016-05-06 at 6.39.37 PMAbove is the Sea Surface Temperature Map  as of May 5th.  For the past several weeks we have seen a rapid collapse of El Nino, which was very strong but despite the hype, was not the strongest ever (1998 still is the champ).  However, while the Tropical Pacific is changing, the Northern Pacific has not changed all that much while the northern Atlantic continues to cool.  What we have in place is called a positive PDO in the Pacific and a weakening positive AMO in the Atlantic.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a completely natural oscillation which lasts for 20 to 30 years.  We are currently in a warm PDO phase which naturally explains many of the elevated temperatures over the past 20 years (shhh, you weren’t supposed to know that).  For more information on the PDO, go here!

So why is the PDO important?  Okay, so I’m going to explain this in general terms but unlike others, I will show you a direct link to this Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) and this fire.  So let’s get this cracking.

1. Note the cold water in the central Pacific and the warm water along the west coast of North America.  This thermal gradient (text book +PDO) leads to air mass clashes over the northern Pacific and what we call a sustained trough.  Sometimes these troughs become cut off and become powerful upper level lows.

2. With the upper level low intensifying in the northern Pacific, a ridge becomes sustained over western North America.  The ridge is a direct result of the trough in the northern Pacific.  While air rises in association with a trough, air sinks under a strong ridge.  The sinking air warms and with strong 500 MB heights (that’s how we measure upper level ridges) that sinking air gets very hot.  Thus you end up with a dry, hot weather pattern over western Canada, the northern Rockies, and the Northern Plains in the United States.

3. Now, remember the SSTA in the Atlantic?  Again, we are dealing with thermal dynamics.  We have very warm water in the western Atlantic and very cold water in the northeastern Atlantic.  This clash of air masses is leading to a trough over the northwestern Atlantic which acts like a block.  Think of this block like a traffic jam.  So, the result of this, combined with a ridge in the West is a sustained trough and/or upper level low over the Eastern United States.  This is why the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas have seen plenty of rainfall of late.

4. So, think back to your high school physics class and remember Conservation of Mass.  You must have a thermal and mass balance in the atmosphere.  This is why we have storms.  The upper level lows in the Pacific and over the Eastern United States balance the ridge over western North America.  The ridge intensifies and as a result, so too the two troughs/upper level lows, which leads to a feed back loop until the block is broken.

So you take this pattern with what was already a warm winter due to the combination of El Nino and the positive PDO, and you end up with a low level environment in Alberta, Canada that is supportive for forest fires.  I should note, that this very same pattern was shifted east last month and lead to some fire concerns in New Jersey a few weeks back.

This process is not unusual.  In fact, there are several cases of these dangerous fires throughout western North America.  If you want to research past fire events in Canada, go here.

Carbon Dioxide did not cause this fire at all.  There is no proof to support that claim.  What caused this pattern is the combination of natural conditions in the atmosphere combining together to produce a dry boundary layer in western and central Canada.  Combine this factor with someone who was careless who started the fire.  Then add a strong pressure gradient between a low over the Upper Mid West of the United States and a high pressure system over western Canada leading to strong winds and you have yourself a dangerous forest fire.

This pattern has happened before and will happen again.  It is not outside the bounds of our normal climate and I can promise you that sadly we will see these fires again like we have in the past.  This is part of a natural process for forests, which at times gets the aid of a careless individual.  In reality, due to our better understanding of these forest fires and control burns, we have seen a marked reduction in these types of dangerous forest fires over the years.  Still, they still can and do happen, just like in California last year.

Over the next several decades we will see the Atlantic continue to cool significantly as we go into a negative AMO phase and the northern Pacific is expected to follow suit as well.  When this happens, the patterns will flip and you’ll noticed marked changes in surface temperatures and weather pattern as a result.  The last time we saw a combination of a negative AMO/PDO was back in the 1950’s which ironically (I say this sarcastically) was when global temperatures were much cooler (but you didn’t hear that).

As you can see after reading this, this fire has nothing to do with climate change but is in fact part of the current climate and has been for centuries.

 

Videos Return To Morning Schedule Tomorrow

Good evening!

Sometimes you have to try something to see it doesn’t work.  That something was evening videos.  As of tomorrow, all videos will be produced and issued in the morning, before 9 AM.

Thank you for your patience!

 

Steven DiMartino

Meteorologist/Owner

NY N PA Weather

New Subscription Levels Coming Soon!

New subscription levels are coming to NY NJ PA Weather in the very near future!

First, I want to be clear that all CURRENT AND LEGACY MEMBERS will have NO CHANGE to their terms and will not be impacted by these changes, unless they choose to.

The 3 and 6 month packages will no longer be available starting on October 1, 2015.  These options will be replace with SEASONAL!  SEASONAL is 4 months long for the low price of $30.  Basically you get one month free!

The monthly option remains in place at a low cost of $11 a month, less than a very small cup of coffee a day.  Of course, if you go to Starbucks you might actually pay more for that one coffee than the membership.

Also still in place will be the VERY popular YEARLY optional which of course spans one year.  

PREMIUM ADVANCE will naturally remain in place for those of you that need some extra attention for you business needs.  At $180 a year, the value is clearly a great addition!

Finally, I am excited to introduce the brand new ENERGY CONSULTATION feature.  Get detailed analysis on the weather patterns across the United States and beyond.  Get the information you need to make the best judgement for your financial investments.  Energy Consultation focuses on the temperature and storm potential over the next 15 days and beyond.  In additional, subscribers will have access for consultation at any time via email, text, phone, or any other medium that best fits their needs.  When you need more than just a straight GFS interpretation on the up coming weather pattern, trust in NY NJ PA Weather Energy Consultation!  Only $200 per month!